Growth forecast 2019 - 2020

The United States´ new position on free trade, coupled with a restrictive tariff policy, US-China economic turmoil, China's slowdown in economic growth, Brexit, and the ongoing Russian embargo are just a few reasons for a slowdown in economic growth.

According to a recent World Bank forecast, global economic growth will slow somewhat from 3.0% in 2018 to 2.9% in 2019, mainly as a result of tensions in trade between the US and China.

Although these growth rates point out a slowdown in growth, they still underline reasonable economic growth in particular!

Port capacity

Various ports in recent past enlarged their capacities in order to be prepared for stronger demand because forecasts have been too optimistic. As a result, overcapacities were created and with that additional competitive pressure.

Today, the question is no longer how to cope with the expected volume, but rather the question of how competitive advantages can be realized in order to maintain and expand market shares in the future.

The same applies to both land as well as maritime transport, where many market participants have left the business in recent years and a high degree of concentration has been achieved through formation of alliances, especially within the container sector.

MEGA-TRENDS

Influencing factors or Mega trends with impact on cargo throughput are:    

• the "new Silk Road",    
• possible Arctic routes
• LNG as an environmentally friendly bunker fuel
• ECA + SECA zones
• Digitization and Industry 4.0
• 3D printing,
• Autonomous shipping
• higher environmental compatibility

Developments of competition

• Expansion of port capacities,  
• Shareholding of shipping companies in ports (Piraeus and Thessaloniki),    
• Development of port regions such as North Range, South Range

Organizational concepts: like    

• Direct calls in the Baltic Sea and    
• Mergers in shipping.

These framework conditions require an adaptation of the corporate strategies of logistics companies and harbors as they can lead to declines in revenue as well as provide opportunities to expand market positions and open up new markets.

For example, new business areas can be tapped by providing areas for 3D printing or warehouses and handling facilities for LNG. In connection with land-based transports via the "new Silk Road", new HUBS with extensive logistics services will be created and from the Arctic routes the northern seaports will benefit in the medium term.

MWP has been working hard on some of these developments over the past few months.

"New Silk Road" /OBOR

For the implementation of new logistics activities, MWP carried out several market potential studies on the "New Silk Road" for rail transport, for domestic terminals in Europe and Asia as well as for seaports in Asia.

Result:

• Substantial growth potential in Asia
• Increasing land transport, especially with higher quality products
• Bottlenecks on the rail at border crossings and via gauge changes
• Currently: bottlenecks in combined transport wagons for rail transport

Newly developed database planning tool

For the Mediterranean region, MWP forecasted future cargo potential for several seaports, analyzed existing capacities and developed concepts for optimizing and expanding capacities. Total planning of the capacities was carried out inside MWP with a newly developed database planning tool.

In addition, efficiency enhancement measures were developed for operational processes and corresponding business plans have been compiled.

Result:

•     Substantial optimization potential and
•     Expansion needs due to new routes and revenue growth

Innovative logistics concept for

intermodal transport

Together with our cooperation partner Gomultimodal, a concept for an automatic high-bay warehouse for intermodal transport units (ITE) such as containers, semitrailers etc. was developed for a location in the chemical industry and a corresponding business plan was drawn up.

Result:

• Economical efficient, especially in the case of space bottlenecks.
• High space efficiency
• fast amortization of relatively high investment through lower operating costs

Chemical distribution logistics
North Africa / Europe / USA

MWP has developed an intercontinental distribution concept for chemical products with tank and box containers for a new chemical site in North Africa. In each case, pre-carriage and follow-up by rail and truck as well as short sea and deep sea transports including the alternatives "lease or buy" for containers were calculated.

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